Barton Deakin Brief: Federal Electorate Redistributions

Date: Mar 2021

Barton Deakin Brief: Federal Electorate Redistributions

19 March 2021

Overview

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has proposed a redistribution of divisions in Western Australia and Victoria.  Victoria will gain one seat in the House of Representatives and Western Australia will lose one, increasing the Victorian total to 39 and decreasing the Western Australian total to 15.  The Division of Hawke will be created in Victoria and the Division of Stirling currently held by Vince Connelly (LPA) will be abolished.  The Division of Hawke is likely to include the suburbs of Ballan, Bacchus Marsh, Melton, Diggers Rest, and Sunbury.

ABC election analyst Antony Green has calculated that the two-party-preferred in Hawke will have Labor ahead with a margin of 10.2 per cent.  The Coalition is not expected to increase its margins in Victoria as a result of these changes and the calculations suggest that there may be small swings against the Coalition in Kooyong, Deakin, Mallee, Menzies, Monash, Chisholm, Wannon, and Higgins.  Labor is likely to increase its margins in Hotham, Fraser, Calwell, and Macnamara, and to decrease its margins in Bruce, Gellibrand, Gorton, Maribyrnong, Ballarat, Jagajaga, Isaacs, Wills, Holt, Cooper, and Bendigo.

Background

The AEC is required to redistribute the federal electoral divisions when: the number of MPs a state or territory is entitled to has changed; the number of electors in more than one-third of the electoral divisions in a state deviates from the average divisional enrolment by over 10 per cent for more than two months; or seven years has elapsed since the last redistribution process was determined.

State/territory

Most recent redistribution Indicative timing of next redistribution

New South Wales

25 February 2016 25 February 2023
Victoria

13 July 2018

A redistribution commenced on 15 July 2020

Queensland

27 March 2018

27 March 2025

Western Australia

19 January 2016

A redistribution commenced on 15 July 2020

South Australia 20 July 2018

20 July 2025

Tasmania

14 November 2017 14 November 2024
Australian Capital Territory 13 July 2018

13 July 2025

Northern Territory 7 February 2017

7 February 2024

Proposed Victorian Redistribution and Renaming

The AEC is proposing to redistribute 29 divisions in Victoria.  The Division of Corangamite currently held by Libby Coker (ALP) will be renamed the Division of Tucker, after Margaret Tucker who was a founding member and treasurer of the Australian Aborigines League.  Margaret Tucker campaigned in support of citizenship rights for Aboriginal people.

The proposal would see:

  • Rearranging boundaries in the low-growth eastern suburbs of Melbourne to more equitably balance the high-growth areas to the south-east and north-west of the city.
  • Taking high-growth areas out of electoral divisions which exceed the maximum number of electors permitted, such as the existing Divisions of Ballarat, Corangamite, La Trobe and Monash.
  • Altering boundaries in the west of Victoria to accommodate the new Division of Hawke, and to more equitably balance electors in the rural and regional west.

Proposed Western Australia Redistribution

The proposal would see:

  • The Divisions of Durack (Melissa Price, LPA) and O’Connor (Rick Wilson, LPA) will gain electors.
  • The transfer of electors in 15 Wheatbelt shires from Durack to O’Connor.
  • The transfer of six Wheatbelt shires from the Division of Pearce (Christian Porter, LPA) to the Divisions of Durack and O’Connor, resulting in all WA Wheatbelt shires being included in two divisions (not three as currently).
  • The abolition of the Division of Stirling (Vince Connelly, LPA) and transfer of electors to the surrounding Divisions of Cowan (Anne Aly, ALP), Curtin (Celia Hammond, LPA), Moore (Ian Goodenough, LPA), and Perth (Patrick Gorman, ALP).
  • Inclusion of the northern Perth suburbs of Girrawheen, Koondoola, Balga and Mirrabooka in the proposed Division of Cowan.

For more information

For more information, contact David Alexander on +61 457 400 524, Grahame Morris on +61 411 222 680, Tahlia Robertson on +61 438 259 671, Cheryl Cartwright on +61 419 996 066, or John Fitzgerald on +61 488 111 568.


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