Barton Deakin Brief: Queensland at the Halfway Mark,
Two Years of the Crisafulli Government
26 October 2026
Key Takeaways
- The Crisafulli Government reaches the halfway point of its first term in a strong political position, with the LNP maintaining a clear advantage over Labor in current polling.
- After two years focused on delivering its core election commitments, the Government’s broader economic direction is increasingly clear: reduce regulatory burden, encourage private investment, accelerate project delivery and maintain significant infrastructure investment.
- The Government’s commitment to no new or increased taxes remains an important point of differentiation for business. Its 2026–27 Budget also projects a return to operating surplus in 2029–30 while maintaining a substantial capital program.
- Housing, resources, energy and infrastructure are emerging as major areas of policy activity and commercial opportunity.
- Labor remains some distance behind the Government and is yet to establish a sustained political challenge ahead of 2028.
- One Nation presents a different challenge for the LNP, particularly in regional Queensland, where competition for conservative voters is becoming more significant.
- The second half of the term will increasingly be about implementation. The Government will need to demonstrate that its regulatory, infrastructure and service-delivery agenda is producing results.
- For business, this creates an important window for engagement while significant regulatory, investment and infrastructure settings continue to be developed and implemented.
Political Position at Halfway
Two years after ending almost a decade of Labor government, Premier David Crisafulli enters the second half of the term from a strong position.
The Government remains focused on the issues that carried it to office in 2024: community safety, cost of living, housing and government performance.
Its economic narrative now centres on fiscal management, private investment, infrastructure delivery and lower business costs.
For business, the shift to implementation means decisions across planning, resources, infrastructure, energy and investment will shape the operating environment through to 2028.
Labor remains the principal opponent, while One Nation is creating added pressure for the LNP in regional Queensland.
With the election two years away, current polling remains indicative rather than predictive.
What Has Changed for Business
Regulation and Red Tape
What has improved: The Government has made red-tape reduction a core economic priority by reinstating the Queensland Productivity Commission, refocusing the Small Business Commissioner, pausing union friendly “Best Practice Industry Conditions” and progressing Building Reg Reno reforms.
Client implications: Businesses should identify approval or regulatory barriers and propose practical reforms linked to productivity, housing, investment or lower operating costs.
Investment and Housing
What has improved: Housing and investment settings now provide stronger support for new supply through eased foreign-investor relief, enabling infrastructure, the $30,000 First Home Owner Grant, stamp duty relief and the Infrastructure Activation Fund, for eligible first home buyers and new builds.
Client implications: Projects that unlock land or deliver additional housing are well aligned with Government priorities, particularly where planning, infrastructure or tax barriers can be clearly identified.
Resources and Approvals
What has improved: Resources policy now places greater emphasis on investment and faster approvals, supported by priorities including CopperString, critical minerals, petroleum and gas exploration, electricity infrastructure and sovereign industrial capability.
Client implications: Resources and major-project proponents should seek practical approval reforms, especially where proposals support regional jobs, investment, productivity or energy security.
Infrastructure and Investment Pipeline
What has improved: The $119.2 billion capital program provides a clearer multi-year pipeline across transport, the Bruce Highway, Brisbane 2032, water, schools and TAFE, with activity moving towards procurement and delivery.
Client implications: Construction, engineering, professional services, transport, property and supply-chain businesses should align engagement and commercial plans with priority projects, delivery agencies and procurement schedules.
Energy
What has improved: Energy policy now more clearly links reliability and enabling infrastructure with industrial and regional growth through CopperString, network maintenance, critical minerals and fuel-security initiatives.
Client implications: Energy-intensive businesses, resources companies and investors should monitor the Energy Roadmap, CopperString and related critical-minerals and regional-development programs.
Labor’s Challenge
Labor must establish a clearer case for where the Government is failing and what it would do differently.
The Government still owns many issues that defined the 2024 contest, particularly crime, cost of living, housing and performance. Labor must decide the ground on which it wants to fight 2028.
Beyond leadership speculation, Labor’s strategic challenge is to rebuild support outside its metropolitan base and present a credible economic alternative.
The second half of the term will require Labor to move from responding to the Government’s agenda to setting its own.
One Nation and the LNP’s Right Flank
One Nation presents a more complex strategic challenge for the Government.
Its support could fragment the conservative vote and influence preferences, although strong polling has not always translated into election-day results.
The LNP must balance regional and conservative voters attracted to One Nation with the metropolitan and suburban constituencies behind its 2024 victory.
That tension may influence policy positioning across resources, energy, regional development and electoral reform.
The key question is whether One Nation’s support becomes entrenched enough to alter LNP decisions or threaten individual seats.
Outlook
The Crisafulli Government enters the second half of its term with a strong political advantage and a clearer economic agenda focused on productivity, investment, housing, resources and infrastructure.
The next two years will test delivery. Infrastructure must progress, regulatory reform must produce tangible benefits and service improvements must become visible to voters, while Labor seeks to recover and One Nation pressures the LNP in regional Queensland.
For business, this creates a timely opportunity to engage as key policy, investment and project settings are implemented ahead of 2028.
For more information, please contact Matthew Harris on 0410 839 586.
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